Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
